AGP Executive Report

Iraq-U.S. Pivot: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is set to travel to the United States next week for UN General Assembly events and direct talks with President Donald Trump, with Baghdad framing Sept. 30 as a shift from security-focused engagement to longer-term economic partnership. Kurdistan Under Pressure: KRG PM Masrour Barzani said the region is facing an “intensive campaign of terrorism” but insists Kurdistan will “defeat” threats through unity and closer cooperation with Baghdad, as attacks continue targeting infrastructure and diplomatic sites. Basra & Borders: Iraq welcomed Western curbs on Israeli settlement goods and also moved to manage regional fallout from the Saudi pipeline crisis by probing drone launch sites and tightening border security. Regional Security Talks: Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezai told Iraq’s Kurdistan leader Bafel Talabani that Tehran “does not trust America” and demanded practical steps, while Gulf states push new security frameworks amid Red Sea and Hormuz risks. Energy Shockwatch: Analysts warn damage to Saudi oil routes and wider Iran-war disruptions could drive sharp gasoline and diesel price spikes, hitting Iraq’s neighbors and the region’s political economy.

Saudi-Iraq Pipeline Fallout: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi moved fast after drones hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, ordering security officer removals in Maysan and closing three Iraq-Iran border crossings while an investigation tracks the launch site and suspects. Budget Pressure: Iraq is drafting the 2027 budget amid an estimated $45.8B deficit risk and uncertainty over oil prices and export volumes, with the draft still awaiting cabinet approval. Fuel Subsidy Review: The Cabinet is reviewing subsidy cuts after MPs warned the changes worsened gasoline and kerosene shortages, with possible revisions for specific sectors. Kurdistan vs Baghdad: At the Slemani Summit, President Nizar Amedi urged diversification and anti-corruption action, while KRG finance minister Awat Sheikh Janab Nouri criticized Baghdad’s budget-share formula and deductions that reduce Kurdistan’s share. Sinjar Returns: Iraq’s Migration Ministry says more than 30,000 displaced people have returned to Shengal, with camp closures planned without coercion. Anti-Corruption: An Al-Diwaniyah antiquities employee was arrested over alleged extortion tied to foreign excavation missions. Diplomatic Push: Iraq’s new US ambassador, Krikor Der-Hagopian, presented credentials and said priorities include deepening Iraq-US political, economic, investment and security cooperation.

Iraq-Saudi Security Fallout: Iraq confirmed that drones targeting Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline were launched from Iraqi territory, then moved to sack a Maysan commander and investigate the attack, while also temporarily closing Iran-border crossings as part of the wider probe. Regional Energy Pressure: Saudi Arabia suspended part of oil supplies to Europe after the pipeline strike, as Houthis escalate attacks around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, keeping crude above $100 and raising fears of longer-term supply shocks. Kurdistan Political Deadlock: A new report highlights how Iraqi Kurdistan’s delayed 2024 elections still haven’t produced a functioning government, with KRG institutions stuck in legal limbo as Iran-linked attacks spill into the region. Diplomacy and Counterterrorism: Türkiye and Iran’s interior ministers met in Ankara to discuss dismantling PKK affiliates and border security, including PJAK, while stressing regional cooperation. US-Iran War Politics: In Washington, the US House voted again to curb Trump’s Iran war powers, though the measure is expected to face a veto. Iraqi Domestic Governance: Iraq continues investigating attacks on Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory and is also pursuing broader security steps, including efforts tied to militia disarmament and online monitoring.

Iraqi Politics & Law: Iraq’s anti-corruption drive landed another blow as an Iraqi court sentenced MP Bahaa Al-Din Noor Mohammed Hussein Al-Nouri to seven years for illicit enrichment, ordering repayment and fines totaling over $30M. Human Security: Iraq said about 1,200 people remain in Syria after Al-Hol camp’s closure, with returns requiring coordination and new transfer arrangements. Kurdistan Budget Fight: The KRG rejected a 12.67% share of Iraq’s 2027 federal budget, demanding 14% tied to the latest census and pushing for salary protections. Hate Speech Gap: A rights group warned Iraq still lacks a clear hate-speech law, leaving minorities exposed as social media rhetoric rises. Regional Fallout: The US reiterated support for PM Ali al-Zaidi’s push to enforce Iraqi sovereignty and prevent attacks from Iraqi territory, while the US House again voted to end the Iran war—setting up another likely veto clash. Public Safety: Iraq’s narcotics authorities reported nearly a tonne of drugs destroyed, alongside large seizures and court sentences.

Iraq-Saudi Pipeline Fallout: Iraq-linked drone attack claims around Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline are driving a wider security scramble, with Baghdad investigating an alleged small armed network outside established Iran-backed faction command structures and Saudi warning of disruptions as repairs proceed. Regional Energy Pressure: Saudi issued broad security alerts including Mecca and Jeddah after Houthi-linked attacks, while oil prices climbed on fears of prolonged pipeline downtime and Red Sea shipping risks. Iraq-Germany Economic Push: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi used a Berlin trip to pitch investment and oil export plans, meeting German President Steinmeier and signing a Phase IV power cooperation framework with Siemens Energy. Iraq-France Deals: In Paris, al-Zaidi witnessed six MoUs with France spanning defense, energy, aviation, and youth/innovation cooperation. Corruption Crackdown in Dhi Qar: Nasiriyah municipality director Mohammed Jabbar Dhaif faces arrest warrants and possible removal amid a widening land and public-finance probe. US-Iran War Cost Hits Iraq’s Orbit: New US budget reporting pegs the Iran war’s cost at $38bn so far, projected to rise $3bn monthly—fueling inflation and intensifying pressure on regional routes Iraq depends on. Business Diplomacy: The Iraq Britain Business Council wrapped a Baghdad trade mission with meetings across ministries and regulators, aiming to expand energy, transport, banking, and legal cooperation.

Saudi-Iraq Drone Fallout: Iraq says it has discovered a drone launch site inside its territory and is investigating who carried out attacks that hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, after Riyadh reported injuries and a precautionary shutdown; Iraq also removed a Maysan commander and says an intelligence committee is working with technical and forensic teams. Regional Energy Shock: Oil prices climbed as Saudi pipeline damage and renewed Houthi attacks in Yemen raised fears repairs could take weeks and further disrupt Red Sea and Hormuz-linked routes. US-Iran War Costs: A Pentagon inspector general report puts the Iran war’s early price at $33.4B through late June and warns of ammunition shortfalls and defense industry bottlenecks, alongside damage to US bases and aircraft. Basra Safety Probe: Basra’s governor formed a committee to investigate a deadly ammonia leak at a fertilizer plant that killed 2 and injured 114. Iraq Governance & Services: Iraq postponed the 2026–2027 academic year start to Oct. 11, citing exam wrap-up needs and high temperatures. Kurdistan Stability: PUK leader Bafel Talabani told Iran’s foreign minister that Kurdistan respects neighbors’ sovereignty and called for peaceful solutions amid strained Iran-KRG relations. Sports: Iraq will send 37 veteran wrestlers to the World Championships in Amman next month.

Iraq–Saudi Fallout: Saudi Arabia says drones launched from Iraqi territory hit its East-West pipeline, forcing a shutdown and raising fears of weeks of supply disruption as Houthis step up attacks and Hormuz talks stall. PM Al-Zaidi’s Response: Al-Zaidi moved quickly after the alleged strike by dismissing the governor of the province linked to the launch sites, signaling Baghdad’s push to contain spillover from Iran-backed networks. Regional Diplomacy: Oman postponed Strait of Hormuz talks with Iran, while Iran and Gulf states trade blame, leaving shipping risk high. Energy Push in Europe: In Paris, Al-Zaidi met Macron and TotalEnergies/Rothschild to secure investment, expand gas and energy ties, and discuss diversification of export routes. Security & Oversight: Separately, the U.S. detained a Michigan man it alleges was a Saddam-era intelligence officer, while a Pentagon watchdog acknowledged Iran-war damage to U.S. bases and munitions shortfalls. Business/Trade: Iraq–France energy and defense cooperation continued, and the Iraq Britain Business Council advanced maritime and investment discussions in Basra.

Parliament & Budget: Iraq’s Finance Ministry plans to submit the 2027 federal budget bill to Parliament on Oct. 15, ending a two-year stretch without an enforceable federal budget. Energy & Diplomacy: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi began a Europe trip in France to ease pressure on Iraqi oil exports amid the Hormuz crisis, meeting Macron and later expected in Germany; TotalEnergies also says it will lift Iraq investment from $12B to $16B, with gas and output targets discussed. Protests & Social Policy: Retirees rallied in Baghdad demanding higher pensions and retirement-law changes, while Basra education workers and graduates protested unpaid salaries, jobs, and disputed hiring lists. Security & Regional Fallout: Iraq-linked drone attacks are at the center of Saudi’s East-West pipeline shutdown; Iran denies involvement and Iraq says the launches originated from its territory, while Kurdistan reported missile strikes on Iranian Kurdish opposition camps. Courts & Daily Life: A Najaf court sentenced a butcher to 10 years for selling pork as beef, highlighting food-safety enforcement in the holy city.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy Stalls: Oman postponed a planned Iran–Gulf foreign ministers meeting in Salalah “in the interests of consensus,” after Bahrain said it would not attend, leaving the future of a temporary Hormuz shipping lane uncertain. Energy Shock From Saudi Attacks: Fresh strikes and a Saudi East–West pipeline shutdown have pushed oil higher at the open, with Brent up about 3.5% and WTI up about 3.1%, as traders weigh supply risks from both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Iraq’s Security Focus: Iraq’s anti-corruption drive saw a court uphold prison sentences for MPs over extortion, while border authorities in Maysan ordered tighter oversight at Al-Sheeb to curb smuggling and illegal crossings. Regional Fallout: Iran said Hormuz reopening depends on U.S. conditions, while shipping incidents near Qeshm and projectile hits in the strait kept maritime fears front and center. Iraq–Europe Connectivity: SalamAir announced flights to Copenhagen via Baghdad, signaling continued efforts to expand Iraq’s international links.

Border Reopening Plan: Iraq’s Security Media Cell says three crossings with Iran—Shalamsheh (Basra), al-Shib (Maysan), and Mandali (Diyala)—will reopen in stages after a drone attack blamed on launches from Iraq’s border area. Passenger entry resumes now, while trade restarts later this week (Shalamcheh and al-Shib first, Mandali next). Accountability in Missan: Baghdad also moved to tighten security after the attack, including dismissing the Maysan operations commander and police chief and agreeing to a joint probe with Iran. Regional Energy Shock: The Saudi East-West pipeline was shut after drone strikes traced to Iraq, adding fresh pressure to already strained oil routes as Houthis expand pressure in Yemen and attacks ripple toward the Red Sea and Hormuz. Energy Investment at Home: Iraq signed a 25-year deal to develop the Ajil oilfield, aiming to raise gas and oil output and support electricity generation. Clean Power for Nineveh: Mosul University is preparing a €40M, 30-megawatt solar project to cut costs and feed surplus power into the grid.

Saudi-Iraq Pipeline Crisis: Iraq says drones that hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline were launched from Iraqi territory, after Baghdad seized a drone-launch platform, dismissed a Maysan commander, and launched a wider hunt that included closing three Iran border crossings and approving a joint Iran probe into newly found launch sites near the border. Regional Energy Shock: Saudi Arabia shut the pipeline “as a precaution,” warning of injuries and damage while global markets brace for higher prices as Houthis tighten their grip near Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea shipping faces renewed risk. Diplomatic Fallout: Trump publicly blamed Iran for the attack while also saying the Houthis asked the U.S. not to intervene; meanwhile regional governments and Arab and Islamic bodies condemned the pipeline strike as a breach of sovereignty and international law. Iraqi Political Watch: With Baghdad governor Atwan Al-Atwani’s retirement under review, sources say several potential successors are emerging amid shifting alliances inside the Baghdad Provincial Council. Sports & Governance: FIFA confirmed Gulf Cup matches will count as official international fixtures, with Iraq set to compete in Jeddah later this month.

Saudi-Iraq Pipeline Crisis: Saudi Arabia shut its East-West oil pipeline after drones launched from Iraq hit sections near Riyadh and Medina, causing injuries and damage; Riyadh said it paused retaliation at Baghdad’s request while reserving the right to respond. Baghdad Accountability Measures: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi dismissed the Maysan Operations commander, ordered investigations into the province’s security structure, and later closed several border crossings for security checks, while keeping key Iran crossings open for passengers. Regional Fallout and Diplomacy: Lebanon’s foreign ministry condemned the attack as a violation of UN and international humanitarian law, while Iraq’s Kurdistan leadership and Pakistan also backed investigations and condemned the use of Iraqi territory for threats. Iran-Houthi Pressure on Energy Routes: The pipeline shutdown comes as Houthis advance around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb, raising fears of further disruption to global oil flows; Iran also announced Gulf talks in Oman on Strait of Hormuz security. Militia Disarmament Track: Iraq also moved on Sinjar’s YBS Yazidi militia, confirming weapons handover and integration steps into state forces.

Saudi-Iraq Pipeline Crisis: Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West oil pipeline in Riyadh and Madinah after “multiple” drone attacks, saying the drones were launched from Iraq; Riyadh said it would not retaliate for now after a request from Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi, while also reserving the right to protect sovereignty and critical infrastructure. Iraqi Accountability Move: Iraq dismissed a senior military commander tied to the attacks and opened an investigation, with officials stressing Baghdad rejects any use of its territory to harm Saudi security and stability. Regional Energy Pressure: The pipeline outage comes as Houthis tighten control around the Bab el-Mandeb shipping chokepoint, raising fears of further disruption; the IEA warned the 2026 oil supply gap could widen as Middle East conflict delays normal flows. Security Crackdown in Iraq: Iraqi authorities in Anbar seized 47 drones and 46 projectiles in a prepared site, linking the haul to efforts to keep weapons under state control. 9/11 Commemoration: Across the U.S., ceremonies marked the 25th anniversary of Sept. 11, with renewed focus on how the post-9/11 era reshaped military and border security and fueled Islamophobia.

Sanctions on Iran-backed proxies: The US Treasury announced “Economic Outcast” measures targeting networks supporting Hezbollah and Iraq’s Kata’ib Hezbollah, naming companies and individuals across Iraq, Lebanon, the UAE and Türkiye and accusing them of funding, logistics and sanctions-evasion. Iraqi youth and culture: In Baghdad, MP Dr. Ahmed Al-Muburqa launched the Golden Obelisk Arts Foundation and preparations for the Iraq International Youth Film Festival, framing arts institutions as a youth investment. 9/11 remembrance with a long shadow: Across the US, officials and communities marked the 25th anniversary with ceremonies at Ground Zero and the Pentagon, while new attention fell on post-attack health deaths and the enduring political and security legacy. Aviation disruption in the Gulf: Dubai International Airport said it remains open and operating despite delays and cancellations tied to regional tensions, with some routes adjusted and services cut. War-on-terror debate: Commentary and analysis revisited how the post-9/11 security state, surveillance and foreign policy shifts reshaped politics and trust—echoing debates Iraqis also feel through the region’s wars and militia dynamics.

Sanctions & Iran-Linked Militias: The U.S. Treasury expanded “Operation Economic Outcast,” sanctioning networks tied to Kata’ib Hizballah and Hezbollah across Iraq and the region, and tightening Iran licensing with a presumption of denial. Regional Security Talks: Kuwait’s acting PM and interior chief met Iraqi and U.S. delegations to review security and defense cooperation amid regional escalation. Iraq-Kurdistan Command Dispute: In Erbil, Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali said Peshmerga are constitutionally recognized but must obey the Iraqi commander-in-chief, as the September 30 disarmament deadline nears. Turkey-Iraq Cooperation: Türkiye’s intelligence chief met Iraq’s parliament speaker in Ankara, discussing security ties plus water, reconstruction, housing, and the Development Road project. Oil & Energy Spotlight: China-backed firms showcased technology at Iraq’s oil and gas expo, while Baghdad also pushed oil-export coordination and capacity plans. Kurdistan Peshmerga Unification: Reports say KRG moved ahead with Peshmerga force unification under a single command. 9/11 Anniversary Context: Multiple pieces marked the 25th anniversary, including renewed debate over the post-9/11 wars’ political and security fallout.

Coalition Exit & Sovereignty: Iraq expects the US-led coalition’s mission to end on Sept. 30, with Baghdad pushing to speed up bringing armed factions’ weapons under state control and stressing no Iraqi territory will be used to target other countries. Security & Governance: The Iraqi government says air-defense upgrades are a priority, with systems from South Korea, Türkiye and the US expected soon, while officials warn against sectarian rhetoric and rumor-mongering. Kurdistan Budget Talks: Erbil pressed Baghdad for a fair constitutional share of the 2027 federal budget, including oil revenues, investment funds and international financing, during meetings in Baghdad. KRG Electricity Relief: More than 750,000 electricity beneficiaries in the Kurdistan Region used the e-Psule system to claim a 50% discount on legacy debts, with the deadline set for Sept. 10. Cabinet Deadlock: Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s remaining ministerial appointments are likely to be finalized after his mid-September trip to Europe, as disputes still hold up Defense, Interior and other portfolios. Legal/Markets: A Najaf butcher was arrested over alleged wild-boar meat sold as minced meat; legal experts say Iraqi law lacks an explicit pork ban but fraud and unsafe-food rules apply. Culture: Iraq’s “Jidariyat Matar (Mural of Rain)” won Best Screenplay at a short-film festival in Alexandria, produced by the Political Prisoners Foundation.